1-4-10 - Explosive Chinese Ad Growth Makes China New Media Corp (CMDI.OB) Perfect

This will be my first perfect stock post of 2010. Fortunately, I had far more hits than misses in 2009. Last year was a period of recovery for economies throughout the world; as a result, I suspect the perfect stocks will be much more difficult to find this year. My first pick in 2009 was Pier One (PIR) at $0.16/ share. It now sits at over $5.00/share. I don't think I'll be able to match the success of that one, but I'll be equally satisfied if my first choice of 2010 reaches anywhere near my goal of 80%-100% returns in 30 days or less. For this selection, I'll venture back into the Chinese market. Small cap Chinese stocks have been smoking hot of late. As most traders and investors move their attention back to the market after their holiday slumber, I believe the stock I have chosen will catch the eye of those looking for the next big gainer. China New Media Corp (CMDI.OB) is the next perfect stock.

China New Media Corp is a fast growing advertising provider in China. Since their business began in 2000, they have become one of the largest outdoor advertising companies in China with a dominant position in Dalian, the commercial center of Northeastern China.
Currently, they are expanding their outdoor media platform into two of the most populous cities in northern China, Tianjin and Shenyang. Each city has approximately 10 million people. CMDI.OB provides comprehensive advertising services such as art design, ad publishing, daily maintenance and technical upgrading. They also have a proprietary, web based advertising platform call City Navigator, which they feel will revolutionize the urban viewing experience. Some of their largest advertising clients in terms of revenue include leading international brand names such as Coca-Cola, Pepsi, UPS, HSBC, Sony, Canon, HP and leading domestic brands such as China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, China Unicom, CITIC Bank, and China Merchant Bank..

CMDI.OB began trading on 12/28/09 at an opening price of around $2.00/share. The stock was the product of a reverse merger between Dalian Vastitude Media Group Co., Ltd. and Golden Key International (formally GKYI.OB).

Fundamentals

China has the second largest outdoor advertising market and is one of the fastest growing in the world. Also, China's overall ad spending has kept a double digit annual growth the last 10 years. The company's expansion into other populous regions and China's consistent high levels of economic growth, should power China New Media's immediate and future growth.

Some of CMDI.OB financial highlights for their fiscal year ending 6/30/09 include the following:

-- Total revenue increased 58% year-over-year to $8.42 million

-- Net income increased 268% year-over-year to $2.84 million

-- Gross profit was $4.9 million, or 59% of sales

The statement that really caught my attention by CEO James Wang was, "We expect to maintain a minimum 35% annual growth rate in the next five years."

Low floater

One general result of a public company that has come about through a reverse merger is heavy insider ownership. CMDI.OB is no exception. China New Media Corp has approximately 27 million shares outstanding fully diluted. However, approximately 22 million shares are held by the following:

Directors and Executive Officers - 9.65 million shares

Chuk Chung Fuk - 7.15 million shares

China Reinv Partner, L.P. - 5.5 million shares

This only leaves around 5 million trading shares to the public. Such a small float can be key in a stock achieving quick, significant gains.

Undervalued

Based on the earnings from the fiscal year ending 6/30/09 and the 2009 year ending share price of $2.35, CMDI.OB was trading at a PE of a little more than 20. However, this trailing PE number doesn't take into account the company's earnings the entire 2nd half of 2009. If you consider the company's growth prospects, the current trailing PE assuming better results the latter part of 2009 is probably closer to 15. Because the stock market places far more emphasis on earnings going forward, a better measurement for determining this stock's value is its Price/ Earnings to Growth ratio (PEG). At a 35% annual growth rate, which the CEO expects at a minimum, CMDI.OB's PEG would be around 0.4. Generally, stocks with a PEG < 1 are considered undervalued. Stocks with a PEG < 0.5 are considered to be extremely undervalued.

Technicals

As I've mentioned before, CMDI.OB just started trading on 12/28/09 . So, there's not much data available from a technical standpoint. See a candlestick chart below of the stock's progress thus far:

As you can see, the stock has traded up the last three days on modest volume. Admittedly, this chart doesn't convey a strong technical argument for CMDI.OB, particularly with so many traders away for the holidays. However, when a stock is brand new like this one, limited data can carry some weight to potential shareholders. I've seen a number of stocks turn public via a reverse merger that trade lower out the gate as holders dump shares looking to cash out as quickly as possible. Although, it is still early, this does not appear to be the motive of China New Media's shareholders based on the trading thus far. Many of the shares are owned by upper level management and per SEC filings company executives have stock purchasing incentives based on achieving certain yearly fiscal targets. Many investors will look at the chart along with the overall make up of the company and conclude that CMDI.OB is justifiably trending up.

Conclusion

China New Media Corp is a fast growing outdoor media company just popping up on the radars of most investors. The biggest concern most typically have with Chinese companies is credibility. I believe the strong international and domestic client list China New Media maintains goes a long way in legitimizing the company and its future prospects. CMDI.OB has great fundamentals, a low float, is extremely undervalued, and appears to have some upward momentum. Also, there should be no opportunities for shorting because the stock is so new. I believe all these factors will result in this stock heading higher at a rapid pace. I'm not going to say that the CMDI.OB will go straight up without there being some dips along the way. However, I do believe the company will reach at least $4.00/share very quickly as long as insiders don't do an about-face and all of a sudden go on a selling spree. Sure, there's a risk in purchasing an OTCBB stock that most people know nothing about, but I think the potential reward of finding a hidden gem is too good to pass up. If you want to read the filing regarding this reverse merger and company's origin, read the 8-K at the following link: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1080627/000107997309001163/dvmg_8k-112009.htm. China New Media Corp (CMDI.OB) is the next perfect stock.

207 comments:

  1. The bid/ask is ridiculous on CMDI right now. I've been trying to buy some all morning, but have had no success because I refuse to a do a market order. Because nobody's selling, the MM's don't seem to want to dip the price at all.

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  2. It's funny the ask is at 4 and bid is at 2.50. I've been sitting here for close to 30 mins and neither is willing to oblige lol. 4 Card exactly the price you predicted...

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  3. great post thanks, will put a little order in right now at 2.60, lets see if it hits :P

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  4. I wonder if the only way CMDI will move today is if someone recklessly places a market order and gets filled at the $4.00 ask price? The MMs look stubborn with no sellers. The perceive lack of interest in the stock based on today's trading is completely MM driven. There were significantly more shares traded during the light trading days of last week.

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  5. got 110 shares at 2.60, lets let it ride! haha

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  6. Good to have you back, Card.

    Bighoper1, LDGI is down 13% today. Do you see this as an opportunity to buy more?

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  7. Tim,

    I am hesitating about jumping into LGDI, because there are a lot of other great stocks. I have bought more RODM today, after they announced a new $19 million deal, which shows that their business keeps flourishing and that the stock may go back up over 6 dollars quite soon.
    As for LGDI, read some DD on the Yahoo board. LGDI is due to publish a so-called JORC report, which will shed more light on the company's potential. Anyway, today's dip really looks like a good buying opportunity, because listing in Australia will be probably preceded by some PR campaign, which will bring more exposure for the stock.
    Finally, I strongly recommend buying some TDGI around 2.5 cents. The financials, which are due on Friday, should clearly show that the company is worth at least 13 cents per share plus they will publish outlook for Q1.

    Good luck.

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  8. wtf is cmdi really at 3.99?

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  9. yeah someone just bought 500 shares with a market order lmao

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  10. That's what happens when there are no sellers and MMs have no shares.

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  11. Bighoper, didn't you get my e-mail?

    Have any of you guys even been able to buy CMDI?? It just looks too volatile and ustable with that wide B/A spread.

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  12. P, I got some in the $2.60's this morning when that one guy sold. If people lose patience and start buying CMDI at the ask, it would move huge. Mmmrollitos, got some too. As I mentioned in the post, the setup just looked too good.

    Nobody's going to do a market sell either at the current spread, so it'll be interesting to see what happens with this one.

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  13. 1. I've been lurking on this site for 6 months or so. Great stuff, Card. I really enjoy reading your comments and have learned a lot from your "perfect stock" explanations.
    2. I was able to pick up 2000 shares at an average of $2.675 this morning. --- ANOTHER GREAT PICK!!!

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  14. Thanks for the kind words SwampDonkey. I may not always get them right, but I try to at least convey a reasonable approach as to why I think something will move. CMDI looks like a volatile one, but I believe that you are in pretty good shape. At some point the MMs must blink and pay up for shares by narrowing the spread.

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  15. CMDI finally got another seller. Since there are so few shares available, the stock won't move unless some people sell. The dip looks ugly, but it's exactly what stock needs to move higher. Now, they just need to tighten the bid/ask.

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  16. someone just dumped 5k which ate up the bids down to 2.66, wierd movement today tho, thats for sure lol ive never seen a stock with such little shares available and whose dumping anyway?

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  17. Card and Bighoper, what do you think of APII? They are looking for a reverse merger partner and they can be some of the best plays out there. They have all this going for them:

    1) An existing trading market for the stock with 11 market makers for 20+ years,

    2) Very limited float,

    3) A very conservative market cap of less the $300,000,

    4) The lowest historical stock price,

    5) Management is willing to step out of the picture,

    6) Operating loss carry forward of $11,600,000,

    7) Current financials posted www.pinksheets.com (http://www.pinksheets.com),

    8) A merger agreement can be entered into immediately.

    Under certain circumstances, the company can be returned to a full NASDAQ listing."

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  18. P, it looks like a pretty good speculative play. I'll keep an eye on it tomorrow.

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  19. Card, APII is more of a long term play but I'm really placing my hopes on TDGI for the short term with financials coming out on Friday.

    You guys think we can finally get to .05 with TDGI by Friday?

    You see any better bet in the short term than TDGI?

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  20. AMFI flying this morning. Solid pick, guys.

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  21. at least the bid/ask is closer now here lol

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  22. Al, I just got in AMFI but it already seems to have stalled a bit. Hopefully that's just a short lull since this news should take us quite a bit higher.

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  23. The Chinese stock I had mentioned about a week back in which I said I was waiting for the technicals to improve is finally happening today. CHOP is the stock. It will easily reach at least $8.00 in the next 3 weeks.

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  24. in CMDI 2.60, out 3.20 today, thanks Card :)

    will look into CHOP now

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  25. I agree with you about CMDI Mmmrollitos. Have you noticed that since the MMs have loosen up a bit, the stock is a lot more liquid? There are very few sellers, but I think there would be quite a few buyers if the spread was better. It does look pretty good though. This might end up being one of my better picks.

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  26. Card and Bighoper, what's your take on TDGI? Still think we could see around .05 Friday when financials and Q1 outlook?

    Al, Card, and Bighoper, AMFI looks pretty good and chart looks nice. You think AMFI is good for a hold overnight?

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  27. P, AMFI looks like more of a long term hold than a trade at this point. A hold overnight for a trade could be risky if market takes another breather.

    With TDGI there's a big sell the news risk since everyone knows it's coming, but if the numbers are staggering it won't matter.

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  28. P, not sure about overnight, but for the next week or two, definitely. They seem to be performing consistently.

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  29. Al, as long as AMFI closes near high of day I think we'll be safe to hold overnight. Even if we open lower tomorrow we can sell first thing in the morning and still get a nice profit out of it.

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  30. Someone mentioned about buying RODM a few days ago. I've notice that GS's chart is headed back northward and that RODM's chart is starting to do the same. The investment banks are maybe starting to be back in vogue.

    CMDI's still moving right along.

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  31. Am I too late for CMDI? I'd like to pick up 2,000 shares below $4. What do you suggest for a limit order?

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  32. Thomas, you could try $3.20 or $3.25 to see if it hits. If someone tries to sell a couple thousand shares it could possibly trigger. It's just a guess though. Shares seem so hard to come by. I saw a few little buys go through at $3.40 the last 20 minutes, but I'm not sure if you can read much into that. CMDI looks to be rolling pretty strong and I wouldn't be surprised if it hit the 4's as early as tomorrow.

    CHOP's also looking good for next week or so.

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  33. Card, I saw your post on CHOP and decided to speculate on it as well. Thanks for the idea. My list of Chinese stocks continues to grow...CHOP, CTRP, CGA, CAGC. Still looking at CMDI. Take a look at MNKD. Think that today's sell off action is a short squeeze. Very good chance that their drug candidate, Afresa, inhalable insulin, will get approved. If not in 2 weeks, then soon.

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  34. Any thoughts on AIB guys? It has been rallying since yesterday think it'll hold up? regarding chinese stocks, check out MPEL. Gaming industry has been hit with a wave of upgrades and they are hot...

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  35. Thomas, if you've owned CAGC for a while then your portfolio is looking pretty good so far this year. Congrats on that one!

    Cool, after a steep decline AIB seems to be on it's way back. I wonder if this is like buying Bank of American at $4 early last year. I'm keeping an eye on it.

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  36. Card, what do you think ECOB? It could really explode tomorrow as it's a strong MOMO play and those are the best ones to get into. It's had great news and the chart looks great.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ecob&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p68993080412

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  37. It looks good P. It may even hit a dollar tomorrow. I think my main concern would be about it gapping up too much and then selling off at the open since it's already gone up 4 day in a row. I'm also seeing a lot of newsletters are really pumping it. I'll be watching.

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  38. CHNC may be the next Chinese rocket. From what I've read it looks awful cheap from a valuation standpoint.

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  39. will you make a full post on it card? much appreciated if u do

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  40. Mmmrollitos, I'm still in the info gathering stage on CHNC, but so far it appears to have a very low PE, low float, and last night's PR jump started the volume. We'll see if it make the cut for "perfect" :)

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  41. Card, where has bighoper1 been??

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  42. Card, great call on CHNC. Target?

    Check out CHTP (strong uptrend, HUGE insider buys, FDA approval pending) and CMZ (strong uptrend, nat. gas play).

    P, I've been enjoying a few days in the mountains so I am not at the computer as often as usual. Thanks for the e-mail. However, I recommend communicating via this blog of Card's where more investors can share their thoughts and become more successful.

    I-Hub just confirmed that TDGI financials will be out on Friday. Today's 0.023/0.024 range may be the cheapest price you can get before the run.

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  43. Bighoper1, I added extra shares of TDGI yesterday in large part due to your strong recommendation.

    It doesn't matter that Hannover's numbers are unaudited?

    How high do you see TDGI going once financials are releasaed Friday?

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  44. P,

    I think it doesn't matter much that the numbers are unaudited, because the CEO promised they will be passed soon to the auditors (Hogan & Tayolor) for verification and possible uplist to the OTCBB or higher.

    If the numbers are great and the stock soars, I am planning to sell some shares during the rally (maybe more than a half, it is still a risky pink sheet stock) and hold rest for the long run (5-10 cents or more)

    Lots of people on I-Hub talk about the 0.049 resistance, but we must first go over 4 cents and stellar numbers (yet unaudited) may take us there.

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  45. Bighoper, I'm thinking CHNC's short term target (meaning a couple of weeks) is $7.50 - $8.50 and long term target is $10.

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  46. Card,
    ADSV moved a lot today with some huge volume. was trying to look at some news but couldnt find anything. this is one of the penny stocks that someone posted on one of your blog's comments section.
    do you know anything on this one?

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  47. Ankeet, ADSV looks like a classic low float, chart, bounce play. It could potentially jump to a penny or two on "chart momo" very quickly, but it won't last very long. I think it's a moneymaker, but if you decide to play it, make your money and run.

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  48. Bighoper1, how did you find out the CEO of TDGI said that about Hannover's unaudited numbers?

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  49. Card, thanks. It is great that you have also turned your attention to emerging Chinese microcaps. Huge opportunities abound in the world's most populous country with annual GDP growth of ten percent!

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  50. P, it's in one of those CEO e-mails posted on I-hub. I believe the e-mail is true.

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  51. As a heads up guys CHGY (one of my old perfect stocks) is trading in a very tight range, much as CHOP was. If at any point, you see an intraday price over 83 cents on volume, it's a screaming technical buy. There are fundamentals behind it as well.

    Tim, I think now may be a good time to speculate on CHGY again.

    Chinese steel looks to be white hot right now. SUTR leads the charge today. Much of the change in overall sentiment has to do with a recent report of surging steel prices in China.

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  52. Thanks, Card. I've kept my eye on CHGY after not getting in when shares were trading in the 30 cent range.

    Not sure I will ever buy another Chinese small cap after being burned by GHII, however.

    GHII was doing well but then there was some sort of a deal where a company insider was able to purchase a whole bunch of shares at a one third discount that absolutely murdered the stock.

    For some reason, I cannot locate the form announcing this deal, so my recollection is a little sketchy.

    It is the kind of thing that has made me weary of Chinese small caps.

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  53. Guys, look at the beaten down regional bank TIBB. Volume is increasing and the chart is starting to point upwards. Very risky, but book value per share still much higher than pps.

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  54. A possible late day buy is CPSL. It's a China steel laggard. Could make a quick 10% to 20% between now and tomorrow. Chart is surging higher.

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  55. Thanks Card, just bought.
    Any thoughts on SNV, there is still a gap to fill to $4 :)

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  56. Is anyone playing CYCC? I missed two entry points, now just watching. Congrats, if anyone took part in the rally.

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  57. Bighoper, I missed CYCC too. I took my eyes off the Healthcare stocks for a bit and then waved the train goodbye. I'm still trying to gauge its potential multi-day power though since it was a mid-day press release.

    SNV still looks good as long as your patient with it.

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  58. Card, monster news on BVTI. I am tempted to jump in.

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  59. Bighoper, although it's a little late in the game for both, CYCC seems to be a little stronger than BVTI when weighing their relative volume. I think the odds are decent that CYCC may due at least 50% tomorrow having nearly double the shares outstanding on mostly a half a day run.

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  60. Card and bighoper, you think the BVTI could run into tomorrow and reach near their 52 wk. high of $1.50?

    I'm holding TDGI and waiting on the 10k tomorrow. I hope so much it will at least take us to .03 and I can get out and then get into something else.

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  61. Thanks, good luck.

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  62. P, the only thing that bugs me with BVTI is the volume. I would have liked to have seen more, but it did close well. We'll see.

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  63. Card, CYCC closed at HOD so that's a very good sign. It could be up quite a bit higher tomorrow but I'm waiting on that TDGI 10K before I get in anything else.

    Bighoper, everything still on track for TDGI right?

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  64. CHGY's now at 84 cents. Look for a breakout IMO.

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  65. I conservatively sold CYCC at 4 bucks, but I wouldn't be shocked to see $5 or $6 today.

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  66. Bighoper1 and Card, what's your take on TDGI? Looks to be trading sideways for the most part until financials come out today.

    You think we'll see at least a bump with the release of financials regardless of what they say since we already know great things ahead with new Hannover House website and more movie acquisitions ahead, Hemdale, and .13/share asset valuation?

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  67. P, I chose not to purchase TDGI b/c of sell the news fears. I just don't have a very good read on that stock right now, but others may.

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  68. Card, I got in CYCC at 3.32 since this is going to hit $5 next week minimum don't you think so? What's the max it could hit? Maybe $7?

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  69. $5 is a possibility for CYCC next week, but I don't think it has enough gas for $7. I bought it at $2.52 yesterday, so I had to lock in profits at $4.00 to be safe.

    The newest train looked to be IMMU until about 5 minutes ago.

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  70. P,

    the downside of TDGI is very limited, because the company is not diluting and there are lot of longs supporting the price in the 0.02-0.025 area. Hold tight, the pop will come sooner than later.

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  71. Card and Bighoper1, it's hard to believe CYCC was only a dollar yesterday you know? Too bad no one caught it in time.

    What type of screeners do you guys use to track the stocks that are breaking out like CYCC? What are the parameters you use to track stocks that are HUGE percentage gainers and what service do you use? Stockfetcher or something?

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  72. PEIX and HLCS may rally into close.

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  73. Bighoper1, with the TDGI pop coming soon what is the lowest price you'd sell TDGI at, .03, .035, .04?

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  74. PEIX seems to always move hard when it does move. I like how CHGY is quietly doing it's business. It amazes me how technical this market trades.

    P, I track big board stocks mostly using Google Finance. Just like the Pinksheets info, it's explained all in this post: http://yourtradingtips.blogspot.com/

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  75. Even though I am staying away from it, nice call on CHGY, Card.

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  76. P,
    acc. to I-hub, financials will be posted later today (after hours) so Monday may be interesting. I am not selling anything under 0.035 and will be waiting for the break of the 0.038 resistance. Anyway, I am patient with this stock (average 0.012), as long as they post great PR's and as long as they are NOT diluting.

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  77. Card, FANTASTIC job on that site. We REALLY should've gotten in on CYCC around a dollar so are you saying one of these 4 sites or all of them gave the news on CYCC when it was around a dollar yesterday, Businesswire.com, Marketwire.com, Globenewswire.com and Prnewswire.com?

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  78. P, it was on one of those. You can see how if you dedicated all your efforts during the day in checking a few sites that you can really make some money. It's just hard to do that if you have other things going on during the day or if you get side tracked following one or two specific stocks.

    Tim, I understand your point of view. I have certain stocks that I refuse to buy just on principle.

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  79. Tim, since your are studying up on breakouts, the 83 cents resistance CHGY broke today was the short term area. 95 cents is the long term area and the gauge for a true breakout. I think a lot of people will pick up on this this weekend. From a technical standpoint the stock is "perfect". If it breaks a dollar, CHGY will hit at least $1.20 in the short term (most clear breakouts go up a minimum of 20%-25% from their true breakout point). It almost deserves a full post.

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  80. Bighoper1, still no 10K from TDGI today. Hopefully shouldn't hurt TDGI too much if they come out with it Monday morning right?

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  81. Card,

    you hit the nail with CHGY, it may be a major play on Monday. Great call!

    P,
    Check I-hub: some sad family news regarding TDGI's Chief Financial Officer, which may be the reason for a minor delay in delivering the financials.

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  82. But Bighoper1 you don't see this as a reason to see TDGI crash below .02 or any reason to sell it right?

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  83. P,

    now we're just speculating. Let's wait for Monday. The filing may hit any time and will be probably followed by a big PR about the outlook for the first quarter. And yes, no reason to sell, the outstanding shares remain constant (this was re-checked Friday) and the company's potential remains enormous.

    See you on Monday.

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  84. In my opinion, the only thing that can derail CHGY from exploding on Monday is the fact that the stock supposedly opened at 95 cents (the 52 week high) last Friday. I never saw that trade and it doesn't show up on the linear chart. So theoretically, the close was higher than the open, which is generally considered bearish. However, anybody who followed the stock could clearly see that CHGY steadily gained throughout the day on volume. I believe the momentum will overwhelm the blind technicians. We'll see.

    If anyone wants to see a sick chart, check out AEOH.PK. I wouldn't buy it at this point, but it has steadily gone up around 400% in the last month and a half. It has literally gone up almost everyday. Crazy!

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  85. AEOH: Fantastic chart. As you said in your post on Rodman, a stock acts this way, when it is severely undervalued.

    But what about the chart of JBII ? :-) They will be converting plastic into oil...

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  86. Thanks again for the heads up, Card. I will keep my eye on CHGY if for no other reason than learning.

    I am looking to get into another energy stock, preferably natural gas.

    It is by no means a "perfect stock," but EPD is looking good to me. It has a lot of things going for it (an amazing pipeline that is probably a monopoly since most folks aren't going to allow their backyards to be dug up) in addition to a ridiculous 7% dividend yield.

    I don't think its share price has a lot of room to grow, but even if stays flat, a 7% return is a pretty solid fall back.

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  87. Bighoper, I almost bought JBII at $3 but didn't because I thought the market cap was too high. Just my luck, it doubled.

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  88. Card, if a stock closes HIGHER than the open that is bullish not bearish. If a stock keeps closing LOWER than the open that's bearish.

    You know how when a stock closes at HOD that's considered very bullish and obviously it closes higher than the open so what do you mean when you say that's bearish when a stock does that??!?

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  89. P, that was a typo on my part. I meant to say that because CHGY closed lower than it opened that could be considered bearish. I just thought it was weird because nobody saw that 95 cent trade at the open. It may have even been a manipulative move by the MMs if they don't want to run the stock yet.

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  90. Great chance to buy TDGI at 2 cents (a drop on very small volume). A double or more from here guaranteed in January.

    Is anyone also making a killing on PEIX? It may go even further.

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  91. Bighoper, you said "also making a killing on PEIX". So, I'm assuming you bought it. My funds have been tied up so I'm just watching it go higher and higher. What was your entry price?

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  92. Guys I've got PEIX on my watchlist but I can't recall how I found it. Did one of you guys call it? I don't think anyone here did, did they?

    Card, all my funds are tied up as well in TDGI.

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  93. Card,

    I bought at 1.34 Friday and sold today at 2.04. I am thinking about re-entering, but although the volume is huge, the stock is now looking undecided where to go. I am also holding HLCS (also nice volume), but it probably needs some news.

    What are you buying?

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  94. P,

    as for TDGI: check the below link from I-hub. We will be soon rewarded for our patience.

    http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45346485

    Advice from a friend: never put everything in a single stock. Even a most promising company like TDGI may fail or do something bad. Diversify between several promising stocks.

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  95. Card and others,

    what do you think about FSNM? If it breaks 0.44, it may have a nice pop. I've been holding it for about 10 days and now it may be finally ready to go. They work hard to regain NASDAQ compliance, which would be more than a double from the current price. Earnings are scheduled for Feb 1st.

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  96. bihoper1, I've been following TDGI all morning.

    I don't see anything encouraging in the charts, but the business sounds promising. Looks like a pretty steady decline to me.

    Is there something I'm missing?

    I ask because your recommendations have been spot on in the past and I am a believer in your picks.

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  97. Bighoper1, how did you hear about PEIX? Did someone here call it? I don't recall seeing it.

    That's great news about the 2 new ventures in TDGI. Don't you think there's a good chance we'll hit that .049 resistance once the news comes out mid week?

    I actually have a little bit in AMFI as well but with everything looking so good in TDGI I want to maximize my gains but I've got my hand on the sell trigger in case something unforseen happens so I won't lose all my money.

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  98. I'm in pretty deep with a few natural gas stocks and am looking to pick up a few more. Anybody have any on their current radar?

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  99. Bighoper, I've been looking at a few regional banks, but I cannot buy anything now because my funds haven't been cleared. I've been watching BBX mostly, FSNM looks just as good.

    SwampDonkey, my worst "perfect stock" pick of last year (CPE) is finally doing something. I wouldn't suggest buying it, but it might be worth watching.

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  100. It looks like the bearish candlestick indicator from Friday worked against CHGY today, but I think a pretty sizable pop will occur at some point within the next month or two.

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  101. FSNM broke through the 0.44 resistance, huge volume.

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  102. SwampThing,

    Williams Brothers (WMB) is a stock I mentioned on here when it was in the $16 to $17 range. It's now approaching $23, so I'm not sure how much run it has left.

    I bought EPD this morning. It has a monopoly on some critical pipelines (I don't see folks from Texas to Chicago okaying the digging of new pipelines in their backyards) so I like their earnings potential with the uptick in the natural gas sector as a whole.

    And it pays a 7% dividend, so there is a security blanket there.

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  103. Card how is Friday's candle on CHGY bearish?? If you look at Friday's candle it's got an all important GREEN body and a long LOWER shadow.

    That means the bears controlled the day early on but later the BULLS rallied and made an impressive comeback.

    You can see Friday's candle on CHGY in the chart below:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=chgy&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p68993080412

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  104. P, had CHGY opened at 83 cents on Friday like most people who watched the stock believed, that candle would have been open and not filled. The fact that it was filled technically implies a short term top in the stock (hence bearish). Of course none of these things are absolute, but it helps to have as many things as possible in a stock's favor particularly when the market often trades in a technical manner.

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  105. Tim, AMLJ has a beautiful breakout chart that's just beginning. It actually has quite a few "perfect" qualities. I think it's a pretty low risk buy. If my funds clear in the morning, I'll probably put a few dollars there. I think it'll go to around $2 bucks pretty quickly. Put that one on your radar.

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  106. It's on my radar.

    I'm looking at the chart right now.

    I see that its upward movements were on high volume.

    It looks to me like it finally broke through the $1.50 resistance level.

    Are those the things you see in it and like, as well Card?

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  107. That's exactly what I'm seeing Tim. I've actually been watching it for about 3 weeks now. The company's fundamentals are great as well.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Card, I feel like I've earned a gold star sticker.

    With Alcoa posting disappointing results, my question now becomes what effect that will have on stocks as a whole? If there's a bloodbath tomorrow, would that negatively impact a technical play like AMLJ?

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  109. I agree on the fundamentals. They look pretty good, too.

    I am curious why you think it would get to $2. That is above the 52 week high and I don't see any other historic benchmark around $2.

    Is it along the lines of an expected jump of roughly one third that is common with stocks like this that breakout?

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  110. Tim,

    sorry for late response. TDGI is great, because it is the result of a reverse merger and the current price is closer to the price of an empty shell company than to the real value of TDGI, which should be well north of 10 cents. Plus: there is no dilution (again confirmed today with the transfer agent) and many big events (PR's) ocurring as early as in January.

    Here is a nice yahoo post on why TDGI should go back up soon despite the current chart: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_T/threadview?m=tm&bn=72222&tid=430&mid=430&tof=4&frt=2

    I actually added 60,000 shares to my position today at 2 cents.

    Good luck to you

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  111. P,

    sorry for late response. I found out about PEIX very easily, because it was one of Friday's top gainers. As I said earlier, to spot these fast advancing stocks I use thelion.com site (it's in the top right corner with a 15 min. delay). Card uses google finance and there are surely other options.

    As to TDGI, I am a bit skeptical about breaking 5 cents without huge volume and would be happy if we first break the 0.038 resistance. However, I listened to the latest interview with the CEO and he was talking about $100 million revenues within 1 to 3 years. So if the management's discussion filed on pinksheets this week mentions this number, we may get the volume we need!

    BTW, what is your average?

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  112. Tim, I said $2 on AMLJ because stocks generally rise at least 25% from their breakout point before pulling back. CHOP moved a little more than 30% as an example. Also, round numbers frequently act as psychological resistance points for traders. These factors are why I thought $2 was a reasonable.

    I'm not overly concerned about an overall market sell off hurting AMLJ. Most of the time, OTCBB stocks don't following the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P. They generally trade in their own little world.

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  113. Card and bighoper1, I appreciate your responses.

    I have some free money and am mulling over getting into one or two of these two recommendations.

    I wonder if I am better off waiting until TDGI starts to rise so that I can be certain of a trend reversal even though I would miss out on part of the run.

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  114. Bighoper1, I also picked up a few more shares of TDGI today at .02 so my overall average is around .023 or .024 since I picked up some at .018 weeks ago but also some at .027.

    I know you said you'd sell at least halfl at .035 and I would be will to sell then too but I'm hoping for .04 and then I'll get into the next big play.

    Probably another one that you guys recommend.

    You've had some great picks lately. Keep it up buddy.

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  115. Card,

    Do you have any experience with T-form trades?
    Something very interesting happened yesterday with TDGI. If you look at the daily chart (http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=webchart&cb=1263302861&symbol=NO%5ETDGI&period=0&size=19&volume=1&delay=1), you'll see that there were much more buys than sells. Of the 7 million volume, there were about 6 million buys vs. 1 million sells. Yet, the price did not move and since noon it actually remained constant at 2 cents. After the close, a huge T-form trade was reported for 6 million shares. Could this be the reason for the stock's weird behavior? Could it be that MM's kept the price artifically at 2 cents so that someone could load up? I am also wondering whether this was a pre-arranged buy at 2 cents by a big player, or rather a pre-arranged sell?

    Thank you for any insight.

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  116. Bighoper, although I'm not in TDGI, I have been watching it and I noticed the same thing regarding all the buys vs sells. My understanding is that T-form trades are just trades made during the premarket and afterhours. There's really no way of knowing if either someone was loading up or dumping, unless a filing is released days later. Either way, the stock probably won't move until that person is done. I know that's not much insight, but it's all I got :)

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  117. Thank you, BTW your former pick ISCR is rocking again!

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  118. YRCW looking interesting today.

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  119. TDGI is looking pretty good to me.

    There have been two dips this morning and it looks like each dip was met with buy orders.

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  120. Bighoper1, I only see ISCR as being up 3% even at HOD....is that the stock you mean that's rocking??

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  121. P,
    I was referring to the previous few days, today ISCR is flat. I just bought YRCW at 0.97, there is a big volume that can carry it much higher if it breaks one dollar. I missed out on EFOI at 1.10 today, it was an easy 20-30 percent.

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  122. Another move upward on high volume.

    If TGDI breaks .23, it looks like it will have some run in it.

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  123. Card and everyone, what do you think happened to CYCC??

    After the great news about the medical trial last week it went to 4.08 and we thought it would hit 5 or 6 bucks last week and then this week but now it's down close to 2 bucks so what do you think happened there??

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  124. I agree, low volume, but again much more buys than sells. With all those news coming soon, it makes no sense to sell.

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  125. Anonymous, are you talking about TDGI or CYCC?? You must mean TDGI.

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  126. P, CYCC did a capital raise. Investors and traders hate companies that dilute immediately after a run up. That's why it was trading so low. I see it's starting to come back some now though.

    ReplyDelete
  127. NEXM hitting a dollar tomorrow seems to have pretty good odds.

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  128. SwampThing,

    EPD is one of very few natural gas stocks that is up today.

    The company announced that its dividend will be increased once again.

    And I like its earnings potential when it reports on February 1.

    I think there will be a shift to dividend plays like this if the Alcoa earnings report is a sign of things to come.

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  129. Bighoper1, if you were not able to be online for the first hour or so of the market tomorrow would you recommend setting a limit order to sell TDGI or you would still be safe if you missed approximately the first hour of market and held?

    I'm only saying that since the updated PR is supposed to come out mid-week which is probably tomorrow.

    Also, I've heard a form-T trade is a trade that actually occurs during market hours but doesn't hit the market till after hours for some reason. I suppose it could be due to high volume or maybe some technical issues with brokers.

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  130. COIN flying.

    P.S. I am having problems with my ID, so they show me as anonymous.

    bighoper

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  131. I was just getting ready to post that Bighoper. Ag is back in vogue and most will remember how easily COIN moves with momo. COINZ (the warrants) should move well too, but it's not quite as liquid.

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  132. Bighoper, I got in COIN. How high do you think we'll go today and where do you think I should set my sell order?

    ReplyDelete
  133. P, I am asking myself the same question. The float is only 20 million and we've already traded almost a half so I think we may go much higher. This used to be a $5-10 stock.

    Card, what is your view?

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  134. For COIN, I'm thinking $1.50 max today, but that's just a guess. It's generally not a "double in one day" type stock, but these are different times, it's priced cheap, and insiders have been loading up recently.

    Now, I wouldn't be surprised if COINZ doubles to touch around 40-50 cents.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Card, why does Converted Organics have 2 ticker symbols in COIN and COINZ??

    How do you know insiders have been loading up on COIN?

    ReplyDelete
  136. P, COIN is the Common and COINZ are their Warrants. They trade separately, but generally move together. See link below for insider info.

    http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=81242

    ReplyDelete
  137. Wow, look at MDFI! Thoughts?

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  138. MDFI has a beautiful chart, but it is hard for these penny stocks with over billion shares outstanding to move much more beyond 2 cents. I wish I was in it earlier though.

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  139. You are probably right. I looked quickly at pinksheets and it seems they will be issuing an additional 330 million shares to their staff as an incentive.
    I'm definitely going to look for a better penny stock.

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  140. Anybody buying GORX? Bouncing off the bottom on big volume, maybe a good technical play.

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  141. GORX has almost always bounced hard once it has dipped into the mid 30's. There does seem to be limited risk at these levels.

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  142. BGP looks like it's about to have a serious short squeeze. It could do well tomorrow.

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  143. Thank you, Card. I have just bought a a few thousand shares, hoping for a 30-50% move over the next days.

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  144. Card, my previous post referred to GORX, but now I have also bought a few thousand in BGP at 1.50 and I have no doubt your entry price is much lower. Thanks for the heads-up!

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  145. Card and guys,

    look at the one-year chart of XRTX. Someone recommended it to me in March, when it dropped briefly below 2 dollars, but I was lazy to do my DD and didn't buy. It's a real beauty.

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  146. TSTR looking very good today, the chart indicates possible run to 2 dollars.

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  147. Anyone also buying ETRM? Great news, great chart.

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  148. if you guys want to see the craziest chart in history lol check VRMLQ, from 1 cent to 28 dollars

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  149. Dre, that KILLS me because I knew about it and do you REALIZE only 1000 dollars in August would've been 2 MILLION dollars by November????? 2000 bucks would've been 4 MILLION dollars!!

    We'd all be MULTI-MILLIONAIRES if SOMEONE pointed out VRMLQ to us!! I knew about it but I didn't know it would the greatest stock in HISTORY!!

    I know Card and Bighoper1 said they're working on finding another one like that or if anyone else finds one even close to that then please post it!!

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  150. Impressive earnings report from SOKF tonight. The chart has a beautiful breakout too. It's not very liquid, but it'll be 5 to 6 bucks by the end of the month IMO.

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  151. Card, thanks for SOKF. BTW, do you know what happened to I-hub live charts? It is not working for me today, I wanted to jump into GNV, which looks great, but without a live chart it's pretty risky. Are google finance charts live ? Thanks and good luck.

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  152. Yeah, my three plays today are KATX, GNV, and SOKF. I almost bought SOKF a couple of days ago, but I wanted more liquidity. The earnings report was confirmation for me to buy even if it's a little more than $4. I'll probably hold it for a while. I bought KATX yesterday on momo. It broke resistance today so it could see 8 to 10 cents. I overpaid for GNV after hours yesterday, but it's working out today. If the market stops tanking, it should move to at least $2.00.

    Ihub's charts are down, but Google Finance, which is realtime for the big board stocks is working fine. So, you can follow GNV there.

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  153. Thank you, you have very nice three picks today, I wish you luck.

    I was planning to buy an I-hub membership for live quotes for all the 5 exchanges, but after today's experience I may look somewhere else.

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  154. Card, can you please post you picks when you buy them and your opinion of the pick as to how strong you think it is and how far you think it'll go?

    It would've been great to pick up KATX yesterday to get a head start.

    Thanks buddy

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  155. P,
    it seems that TDGI is starting to move. A huge PR with AUDITED financials showing the company's value of at least 13 cents may hit any moment today. Anyway, this stock has a great 2-cent support.

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  156. Anonymous, is that you Bighoper1?

    Yes, TDGI is starting to move on anticipation of the PR with the 10K, Q1 outlook, and the 2 new ventures.

    We should break .049 resitance but I guess that won't be till Monday unless the PR comes out today.

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  157. I've kept my eye on TDGI.

    That thing is bouncing up and down like crazy.

    But, the last two volume spikes have been in a positive direction.

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  158. Yes its me, bighoper. Link to today's letter from the CEO:

    http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45549825

    Good luck to all.

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  159. bihoper, I think by now you've come to the conclusion that I am a very cautious investor, especially when it comes to penny stocks like this.

    Your 13 cent valuation is very intriguing to me, but the delay after delay on reporting the financials has me a little freaked out.

    Are repeated delays like this typical for a company this small?

    The large caps I generally invest in always stick with their announced date.

    Thanks, homeboy.

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  160. Bighoper, are you still selling half your TDGI at .035 or you think it could hit .049 resistance on Monday if you hold?

    When you think you'll see the other half or you'll sell all at what price?

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  161. What do you guys think of ZVTK? Could be a great opportunity here come Monday.

    ZVTK announced that it is buying TV airtime to run the Ionic Bulb ad about 100 times between January 18, 2010 and January 24, 2010, with the 2-minute infomercial expected to appear on AMC, CNN Headline News, TV Land, Discovery Science, Hallmark Movie Channel, Game Show Channel, Gospel Channel, Great American Country, Planet Green. Watch for a possible rally Monday has the ads hit the air!

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  162. Tim,

    I have a strong respect for your cautious approach. It's clever to be on the sidelines and wait for a big opportunity instead of jumping into every stock that looks a bit promising.
    I have also become more cautious after I lost big on MGLG.pk, for example. Penny stocks are exremely volatile, but can be fantastic gainers, especially reverse merger plays like TDGI.

    The 13-cent valuation is based on what the CEO said and I hope this will be supported by today's filing.

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  163. Bighoper, there has not been a filing yet for TDGI today. Do you have info the PR will come out before close today?

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  164. P,

    I am patiently waiting for the actual numbers and for the market's reaction. Let's first wait for the numbers!

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  165. P,

    the filing will probably hit later today in after hours.

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  166. I'm looking for a little dip, but it is holding steady at .028.

    Apparently folks are holding on in advance of the release of the numbers after hours.

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  167. Bighoper, when the PR comes out please post what you think is the best price to sell TDGI at and if we should sell most of it or all of it or what?

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  168. Tim,
    it was a great buy at the 2-cent support, you would be already up 40%, the short-term upside now depends on the financials and the management's report, so it's riskier.

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  169. P,
    tough questions, you should think for yourself what you should do! Anyway, it is very possible that TDGI will do great next week.

    Have a nice weekend.

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  170. TDGI stellar filing just hit pinksheets....Tuesday morning gap and run
    possible imho.

    http://www.pinksheets.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById.pdf?id=27997


    Watch it closely.

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  171. Just as a headsup to anyone interested: TDGI's new pinksheets filing is huge to put it mildly and the stock is set to soar this week and beyond.

    A nice summary is here:

    http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45615191

    and a bonus is here:
    http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45615762

    Wow!

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  172. I've put my order in, but not sure if it will execute given the likely gap to open.

    By waiting for the financials to come out, I am getting in at 3 cents instead of 2 cents, but, 3 cents is still a good price for this company, IMO.

    Unless the CEO committed fraud, this thing should take off.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Bighoper and Card, what do you think of WTKN, AFTC, and ALTO? They've all had big news recently and have pretty big things coming. Which one of the 3 would be the best to get in?Or none??

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  174. Card, what does it mean when a stock stays flat on huge volume?

    TDGI has some high volume moves upward, but its highest volume of the morning produced nothing, not up or down.

    Is that simply saying that a whole bunch of people bought at .03 but also that a whole bunch people sold at that price as well, effectively cancelling each other out?

    The stock went way up after that sideways move if that tells you anything.

    p.s. So I don't look like someone who only takes advice and doesn't give any, my WMB recommendation has now increased 50% from when I recommended it in the $16 range. My perfect stock picks, I guess, take a little time to reach their potential and don't have the benefit of a quick spike like Card's. :)

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  175. I probably like ALTO the best of the three, but none of them really jump out at me right now. I'll monitor them though.

    ReplyDelete
  176. Tim, nice call on WMB. I learn a lot from you guys as well. I'll never think I know it all.

    If a stock stays flat on high volume, it's usually considered bullish and is rarely a bad thing. Generally, consolidation occurs when MMs are trying to dump shares or accumulate them. Once the MMs are finish, a stock generally moves higher quickly and easily.

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  177. Card and Bighoper, what do you think of BYSD? It's a fairly new petroleum company that is trading at a volume about 10 times its 60 day average.

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  178. TIBB is really starting to move up big. It doesn't quite have the volume I'd like, but it may be setting up for a GRAN type move. Did you ever buy this one Bighoper? I believe this was one of your regional bank plays.

    P, I don't know a lot about BYSD. I'll check it out.

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  179. Card, I got in TIBB at .99 and you all should check out WTKN. It's got some momo and will close near or at HOD and that's a bullish sign. Chart looks good and it appears the MM like it and I see .30 is very likely this week for WTKN and over .50 this month is possible.

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  180. Card, I see GRAN tripled in value in around 10 days so you see TIBB hitting 3 dollars this month? It's really moving and its 52 wk. high is 4.31.

    Card, HOW did you know TIBB would shoot up like this EOD??

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  181. Card,

    yes I bought TIBB at 0.60 and sold for a 25% gain at 0.75. It just looked too risky. Call me a loser!

    I did the same with FSNM (about 20% gain), which is flat today and may be the next one to rock. I am thinking about rebuying it. Any thoughts on this one?

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  182. FSNM, scares me a bit with the CEO stepping down recently and an insider selling a couple of weeks ago. It could pop, but I think that one is a little too risky for me.

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  183. Taking a peek at the chart for TDGI today.

    Nothing really jumps out at me, but the sudden drop from .034 to .032 at the end day is curious.

    It looks as if someone wanted to kill the momentum the stock had to close out the trading day. It was on a nice run to perhaps close at the high of the day, but then that rally was killed with just a few minutes remaining.

    Card, I remember you suggesting that perhaps a big player had done something similar to CHGY to keep the price down (because, if CHGY had continued its run, it would have signaled a breakout).

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  184. A video analysis of TDGI.

    Interesting stuff.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1VAOV3KpfY

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  185. I'm thinking about putting a little into DEAR on a dip even though it's already up big. Tangible book is $6.79/share so it still seems pretty cheap at the current price. If the volume cranks up even more, it could really have a big day. It could be an interesting one to watch.

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  186. P, you are making a killing with TIBB.

    I decided to buy back in on BOFL. It consolidated for a month and now I think it's ready to do a TIBB.

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  187. I'm trying really hard to find a regional bank stock to do a post on that I can buy and hold for a 15-20 bagger two years out. Most look good from a technical standpoint, however; it's a struggle to find one with decent fundamentals. If anybody has got any suggestions, feel free to post them.

    ReplyDelete
  188. Card, Gold Horse shot up 40% earlier this morning.

    I know this because I've held onto it, unfortunately.

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  189. Tim, I considered buying back GHII a few days ago seeing that it was one of the few remaining Chinese stocks that hadn't made a major move. Unfortunately, I never pulled the trigger. Do you know if they ever got that possible lending default situation corrected?

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  190. Card, I've had a hard time finding info. on Gold Horse.

    I couldn't locate that funky deal I mentioned a few weeks ago that killed share prices many months ago.

    It was posted on Google Finance, but had been removed.

    The news today was the completion of old projects and the initiation of new ones.

    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/gold-horse-international-inc-completes-a-key-construction-project-begins-work-on-two-additional-projects-valued-at-442-million-82150262.html

    It's still seriously undervalued with a PE of just over 6.

    I'll be thrilled to get out at a break even point.

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  191. BOFL has been a beast. More than a double in two days on no news. I sold at $1.50 though because I felt like a pig.

    ReplyDelete
  192. My newest risk/ high reward trade is FPBN. It's a low float, regional bank, chart play. It's not very liquid, but the chart makes me think it could double in about a week. Most of the regional banks have been running for about a week now. It's one of the few plays at the very beginning of what looks like an upward push. We'll see!

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  193. hey card, was that you buying the 75k right now?

    I just bought in a tiny amount at .72, chart looks great, thanks :)

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  194. mmrollitos, no that wasn't me. FPBN sure is acting crazy though. Volume has picked up and there seems to be a lot more buying than selling, yet the price keeps dropping. It almost looks like the MMs are intentionally lowering the price to allow someone to make large buys on the cheap. Weird!

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  195. Card, FPBN chart looks quite a bit worse now. Is it still good to get in now?

    Unfortunately I've missed the market for a couple days due to outside circumstances so I didn't get that killing on TDGI but sold at 1.27 when I saw it crashing. If I had been online I would've sold near 1.72.

    I'm all set for your next great BAGGER pick Card!!

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  196. Card, I meant I didn't get that killing on TIBB.

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  197. FPBN didn't work out so well yesterday. My pick today is GNXP on a volume pop and breakout. Target is $1.20. Hopefully, this one will do much better.

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  198. Card, there was almost no volume in GNXP until the last 3 days. It only had around a couple 1000 or so volume a day for MONTHS and then suddenly almost 8 million in 3 days!

    There has been news about appointing a well known geologic consulting firm to its Nantawa Project in Yukon Canada but that doesn't really seem like earth shattering news.

    I'm in at .76 and so far nothing much is happening.

    How soon you think we'll really get rolling? Within the next couple hours?

    ReplyDelete