5-4-09 - Combining Two Hot Sectors Makes Gold Horse Intl (GHII.OB) Perfect

Today was an explosive day in the stock market. Most every stock was up and certain sectors have been on quite a run. With so many stocks significantly coming off of their bottoms, it will be tougher and tougher to find perfection, but I really feel that this next stock is an easy double from here. This stock is definitely in the right space as it happens to combine in my opinion the two hottest sectors in the market right now: China and Real Estate. It had a big day today, but I think there's still a lot left in it. In this post I'll float back into pennyland and show that the next perfect stock is Gold Horse International (GHII.OB).

Gold Horse International is engaged in three business sectors in China: construction, residential and commercial real estate development, and hotel management. The stock was taken down steadily and is just beginning to see the light of day despite great earnings.

Fundamentals

In the wake of the economic downturn, the Chinese government has vowed to do everything possible to stimulate its economy. Part of that stimulus plan is to foster construction and real estate. 4 trillion RMB is being released to encourage affordable housing, rural development and infrastructure projects. GHII.OB is set up perfectly to capitalize on these measures.

Earnings

GHII.OB's 2008 revenue was around $67 million, which yielded an eps of $0.10. The company has already completed 2 quarters in 2009 and has provided guidance of $90 million for the year. Book value is $0.43/share. These financial indicators are impressive for a stock currently sitting at $0.13/share.

Technicals

Check out GHII.OB's 1-year chart below:




As you can see, GHII.OB traded over $1.00/share less than a year ago. After consolidating for months, today's 44% move looks to be the start of a breakout.

Catalysts

I've already mentioned that Chinese stocks are hot right now. With the promising China manufacturing numbers that were release today regarding expansion for the first time in 9 months, I predict that you could see some crazy stock run-ups the next few weeks in Chinese stocks that could rival what we saw in late 2007.

Also, 5/18/09 is a major investment conference focusing on Chinese companies in New York. With all the money that's still waiting on the sidelines, this could be a great opportunity for Gold Horse to lock in some big money ownership, which will inevitably push up the stock price.

Conclusion

Stocks have made a tremendous run and we look to be primed for DOW 9000. As we inch closer to that number, look for many stocks to give up some gains soon as profit taking occurs. However, GHII.OB is nowhere close to being overbought and appears to still have room for at least a double based on this blog's strict criteria. Gold Horse International (GHII.OB) the next perfect stock.

32 comments:

  1. Im in pretty big on this one... lets make some $$!!

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  2. haha Im in too... Just hope .20 is not the highest it gets... Finally made a move on Cards pick.. I hope this makes up for all of my picks!

    Thx again!

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  4. BUY BUY BUY! the high so far is .219 hopefully it is more bid through the day.

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  5. I feel very fortunate already, up 35%! That's a great day for me! Now I'm just setting up my stop order to secure some profits.

    Thanks Card!

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  6. this is really struggling to get over that .21 line

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  7. Lots of resistance at the .21 level..

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  8. Card,

    I haven't been able to get any of the stocks you recommend simply because I learn about them when they already had a major run up. GHII is alraedy .21 now. what s a good entry point to wait for.
    also, is there a way to get these alerts by email?
    thanks

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  9. cceport -

    Card has stated in a previous post that he tends to post his recommendations late in the evening (he hasn't gotten into the business of charging and/or sending alerts yet). I have Google Reader set as my home page so that I can monitor this and other blogs that I follow as RSS feeds. Perhaps you could do something similar? Google Reader doesn't provide alerts, and I haven't done the research... but there may even be an RSS reader out there that does alerts also??

    Something to consider.

    Thanks!

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  10. Hey cceport, I think (hope) .21-.20 is still a good entry point.... this is where I jumped in. reading Cards blog it has many good reasons why it could reach .30, .40, .50 even.. that neing said you never know...What I know for sure is that I've waited FAR TO LONG on all his other picks... so me getting in at .20 still makes me feel very confident...

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  11. cceport, I don't currently have any alerts. I'm trying to encourage frequent visits to the blog and hopefully have the comments section be used as an additional resource. All I can do is encourage you to check the blog daily. I usually post either late at night eastern standard time (between 10PM and 1AM) or on the weekends. There's no set schedule. If I see an opportunity, I pull the trigger.

    Regarding GHII, it appears to be trading between $0.19 - $0.21 now. I would expect a bit of a "lunchtime lull", but things could pick up again in the afternoon as more west coast traders get involved. The stock's already made a nice move so tomorrow could have some profit taking. I'd watch it for a while to see what happens. Most people have $0.30 - $0.40 price targets for the next 3 to 4 weeks particularly if China continues to put out good numbers. Good luck!

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  12. Hi Card
    Any thoughts on why TPGI is falling before the earnings this evening. I did not see any negative news,and i was hoping this will go up today.
    TIA,

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  13. Card,

    What's your take on CTIC? It has posted modest gains today after the announcement that it's drug Pixatrone will be used on a per patient basis in Europe. Pixatrone is in it's 3rd stage of clinical trials, and if all goes well is looking at an FDA approval sometime late this year.

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  14. Rick_24, I just posted a comment about this on the TPGI post. I think this is just classic profit taking. If a stock has a strong run up into earnings like this one, people tend to sell at the last minute as a means of locking in gains just in case the report is bad. Very little volume is required to move this stock since the float is low. It can work for you or against you. The report is out this afternoon. I'm taking a "wait and see" approach.

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  15. Beach, I don't have much of an opinion on CTIC. As a general rule, unless a biotech/ pharma company has something earth changing like Dendreon, I won't hold them very long particularly if they've moved a lot. CTIC is hot and may be an exception. I'm just not sure how much longer it will last.

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  16. Card,
    You said report is coming out this afternoon?
    What is that for??? TPGI earnings????

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  17. Thanks for one more perfect pick, i got little let to get in though.

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  18. Card, how long do you suggest we hold this? End of week?

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  19. Dave, when I said report I did mean earnings. The conference call is tomorrow.

    d, its hard to put a time table on quick moving stocks. I say just hold until it hits your number.

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  20. humm....bad day so far today (currently at .17)... haha probably because Im in on this one!! everything I touch turns to crap!

    Im going to hold this one though... I have faith in it and Card!! GO GHII!!

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  21. ryan, i have the same luck :( .. well, i got stopped out on this one, i didnt lose a lot but still took a loss, i dont think im going to get back in unless it gets to .10 or below, Good luck guys

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  22. All these Chinese microcaps have been following the same pattern. They explode up for a couple of days, next they have a big sell-off for a day or two, then the buyers come back and they move higher. See CHFI for a good example. It moved up big, drop around 50% on Monday, was up 50% yesterday, and is up 50% again today. I see a similar pattern for GHII.

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  23. Im still holding!! at least till the May 18 week just to see waht happens!

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  24. I made over 40% profit in just over 2 hours or so, early Tuesday morning... Took the money and run. That is a perfect stock to me! I'll take that anytime/anywhere!

    Thanks again Card for all that you do!

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  25. yea, im not messing around with this anymore.. I dumped 10k shares .195 lost money because of the commission fees associated to shares over 1k....

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  26. Anyone listen to the conference call? Curious whether GHII received any air time.

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  27. Tim, in case you didn't here it, here's the link for the presentation:

    http://www.shareholder.com/visitors/event/build2/mediapresentation.cfm?companyid=ABEA-2VV0PO&mediaid=36854&mediauserid=3736527&TID=643102922:A29F87E303B3416A1A460006D2C02FE5&popupcheck=0&shexp=200905181408&shkey=491fb6f6752c135481c34a31f066f2be&player=1

    I usually give Chinese microcap stocks PE's of no more than 5. If there are no negative surprises, there's no reason that this thing shouldn't hit at least 40 cents in the very near future.

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  29. Card,

    First, thanks for the info you provide here, been following for a while now.

    I was able to get in on this one at 0.20, and sell last Friday at 0.26 actually, and have since bought back in at the drop today....

    What did you take from the presentation? Their projected revenue and profit look promising for the year ending in June, but some negatives from what I could hear:

    - 3Q expectations are lower due to normal winter slowdown in construction
    - they couldn't payoff their debt at end of March and are in process of re-negotiating it
    - tight for cash which inhibits investment in future projects - specifically the wind power diversification

    Do you consider any of those points as negative surprises?

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  30. Thanks for reading Jason! I took away basically the same things as you regarding the presentation. Despite the things you mentioned, fundamentally, the stock is still undervalued. Although I've been wrong before, I have a tough time believing that their sub 2 PE and consistent revenue would be overlooked for much longer.

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  31. Not sure what could give GHII some momentum in the near term. Stock is kind of flat and can't get over the .259 cent hump.

    I am going to sell if it ever get back into the .25 cents range so I can move this money elsewhere.

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