"The Perfect Stock" blog at http://theperfectstock.blogspot.com is back with probably the most no brainer stock selection I've ever made. I hope you guys have plenty of powder ready on Monday, 4-26-09 because this could be the easiest money you've ever made. Typically, in breaking down a perfect stock, I'll show graphs and give multiple reasons as to why I think a stock will obtain monster gains very quickly. For this post I'm not going to do that. There are certain times in playing the stock market when a story is so powerful that it supersedes all analytical thinking. No paralysis by analysis today! The next perfect stock is Novavax (NVAX).
If you haven't been watching the news, one of the world's biggest stories has involved the swine flu epidemic that is sweeping Mexico and now the U.S. The outbreak in Mexico is being blamed for at least 1,000 infections and 81 deaths. There have been 20 reported cases in the United States so far, but fortunately, none have been fatal. It is believed, right now, that the flu only spreads from human-to-human contact and human contact with live pigs. Today, Federal officials have declared this a public health emergency. Also, the quick spread of this new flu strain has caused world-wide alerts for those traveling to Mexico and the U.S.
Public health emergencies often cause an overreaction, which quickly progresses into public panic. In scenarios such as this, the stock market responds equally as violent in those companies that may offer a solution. Novavax (NVAX) is said to be able to produce a vaccine from an emergent strain of flu virus in 12 weeks. The company has contacted the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to offer help and is also trying to contact the Ministry of Health in Mexico.
On Friday NVAX spiked 75% to $1.42 with a lot of the action coming late in the day. It was up another 35% during after hours so obviously the run is not done. I see $3.00 as literally a guarantee. However, it has the potential to go much higher and run a couple of days especially if words gets out that US and Mexican agencies are accepting of NVAX's help.
If you're a skeptic and think you've missed too much of the NVAX run, expect strong moves as well from other vaccine stocks like VICL, DVAX, and BCRX. Novavax (NVAX), the next perfect stock!
Don't forget that if your looking for some additional trading ideas, check out my other blog at http://yourtradingtips.blogspot.com .
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Card,
ReplyDeleteIs that good idea to get in at this price??
I think so Dave. This story is getting bigger and bigger everyday.
ReplyDeletelol this is funny.. we were discussing this same idea over at HSM... check it out:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68898
Card,
ReplyDeleteYou up?
Where do you buy this thing at?
It's all ready past your $3.00 mark in pre-trade. Looking for a quick double here. . .What do you make of it?
I am being so stupid here! But, it was up to like 4 in pre-market, and it is now down to say 3.22 pre-market. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteim in the same boat here.. im not sure its a good idea to buy? it looks like this already ran its course?
ReplyDeleteLooks like we're all a day late and TWO dollars short....I think we missed the bang and it's going to settle where it is and drop once the whole swine flu dies out in a week or so.
ReplyDeleteCard,
ReplyDeleteIs still to get in at this price??
Card, thanks for the heads up on this stock.
ReplyDeleteAnd thanks for announcing the new post in the old thread. Because I subscribed to e-mail updates for the CHGY entry, I was alerted to the NVAX post.
I would appreciate it if you announced new posts in the comments threads of old posts so I can follow along and stay up to speed with your new entries.
I again missed out, however, on getting in on this stock. Price was too high for my liking by them time I could have bought.
I am in at 3.4, its been down since.. A little concerned.. Is it still a going to go up ?
ReplyDeleteDave, are you on twitter? might be a good idea to get your perfect picks on a regular basis
ReplyDeleteCard,
ReplyDeleteI'm in at the end of the day @ $2.55/share. Glad that I waited it out.
I look forward to your take on today's trading and your outlook for the remainder of the week. I'm certain this is a news driven stock, so I'm not too concerned.
Looks like the sheep took a hit today...
ReplyDeleteNVAX After Hours: 2.76 +0.21 (8.24%) - Apr 27, 4:57PM EDT
ReplyDeleteSooo, readying for a take off tomorrow?
i also got in @ 2.55 .. Im thinking tomorrow were going to see a repeat of today, but prolly not as high % gain.. It depends on if NVAX releases PR and the 10-o-clock news spins this. If NVAX does release a juicy PR, this is gonna fly, and if the news does exaggerate this to the fullest.. thats just icing on the cake!
ReplyDeleteThanks card, for your another perfect pick.
ReplyDeleteIt could touch $5.00 tommorow, this stock is all over the place now.
It would have been great if we would new a bit early, but this train still on track.
Sorry guys. I've been tied up all day.
ReplyDeleteDhippe and d, brilliant pick up at the end of the day.
In the post I thought $3 was certain, but in my mind I thought $4 was doable. I had no idea it would get there so quickly though.
As far as where this goes now is anyone's guess. I think you might see $4 again tommorrow because the flu seems to be spreading. Supposedly, NVAX's CEO has an interview on CNN tommorrow. If this story continues to dominate the headlines all week and countries begin to ask for help, $10 is not out of the picture.
I've also picked up another lot at 2.6 and averaged to 3 dollars at the end of day.Hope it goes up tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteCard - Thanks a lot for sharing your picks.
Good luck RV. This is certainly a potential monster!
ReplyDeleteAaaaaChoo!
ReplyDeleteAfter Hours: 2.95 +0.40 (15.69%) -
Do you guys think it will continually go down as it did yesterday or will it go up? It seems like the broad market is headed South today, any comments?
ReplyDeleteCard,
ReplyDeleteAny update,what is the best exit point??
Dave, I'll readily admit that exit points aren't my specialty. However, it does look like the market is separating the swine flu stock contenders from the pretenders. NVAX's relative strength today is an awful good sign.
ReplyDeleteI still think everything depends on if the company begins to have meaningful dialog with governments or if there's a push from government officials to get a vaccine ASAP.
I'm here in South Carolina and today they have upgraded some "possible" cases here to "probable" after some tests were run. A lot of people went to Cancun the past couple of weeks for Spring break and are coming back sick. I think that's part of why the outbreaks have been so spread out.
Dendreon has yet to pull back after its monster move so this really could continue to move up. No one really knows for certain though.
Thanks Card,
ReplyDeleteLet see what tomorrow bring for all of us.
Good luck.
Why is it still hovering under $3? The situations look favourable with WHO raising the alert level to 5, and reports of US Govt already saying that a vaccine will be out in few weeks. Are there any major pharma companies that could produce vaccine as fast as Novavax? What might be the conditions going against NVAX at this time?
ReplyDeleteFOR THOSE STILL HOLDING NVAX, don't know if it's bottomed our but it was up in after hours trading. Talk about Southern Hemisphere entering peak flu season, WHO possibly upgrading pandemic alert from 5 to 6 and the fear of a repetition of the 1918 pandemic in terms of 3 increasingly severe phases, if not lethality, could provide a bounce for this stock.
ReplyDeleteAnd there's this: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30563707/
"Worries about a second wave of flu, early immunity and growing drug resistance all could be eased by the development of a safe, effective, widely available vaccine to protect against the new H1N1 swine virus.
Federal officials have started growing enough “seed stock” of the novel virus to provide material to vaccine manufacturers, according to press briefings. So far, it appears that the process is going as it should.
“I’m very hopeful that we’ll have a vaccine by the fall,” Weinstock said."
Finally, could be worth a listen!
Earnings report announcement:
Novavax Announces Release Date of 2009 First Quarter, Financial Results and Investor Conference Call:
ROCKVILLE, Md., May 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) today announced that it will report its 2009 first quarter financial results in a press release to be issued after 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, May 8, 2009. The Company will hold an investor conference call to discuss its financial results at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, May 8, 2009. The call will be hosted by Novavax President and Chief Executive Officer Dr. Rahul Singhvi and other members of senior management. A question and answer session will follow the financial results overview. The dial-in number for the conference call is 1 (866) 225 4091 (International: 1 (703) 639 1128.)
A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available at www.novavax.com under Investors/Events. Please connect to this website at east 15 minutes prior to the conference call to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be needed to hear the webcast. A replay of the webcast will be available on the website for 90 days after the call and a replay of the conference call will also be available by telephone beginning May 8, 2009 at 1:00 p.m. through May 13, 2009 at 11:59 p.m. To access the replay, dial 1 (888) 266 2081 and enter pass code 1357908.
Look's like NVAX has life again. If it can close above $3.00 today, a new 52 week high of $4.00 is very possible come Friday. Small cap biotechs/pharmas have been on fire the past couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteHuge news for NVAX today regarding the Spanish government. Finally, this thing should hit 4 bucks now.
ReplyDelete