As a result, I decided to change up the post a little bit today. In order to really make money, you need to buy or target a stock before the run starts. So, this post will be about a stock that is not yet perfect, but is setting up to possibly be one. The stock on the perfect stock radar is Thomas Properties Group, Inc. (TPGI).
Thomas Properties Group is a real estate company that owns, acquires, develops and manages offices, as well as mixed-use and residential properties. So why is TPGI on my perfect stock radar? Well, it already has a lot of perfect stock qualities:
- It's in a beaten down sector that's now on the rise - Real estate operations stocks like REITs and property management companies, which were taken down with the housing bubble, have been steadily climbing the last two months.
- There's been lots of insider buying - TPGI's CEO has been aggressively accumulating shares. He has purchased approximately 200,000 shares in total the last 4 to 5 months. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=52396
- The company has had some positive news - On 4/3/09, it was announced that the company was retained by Korean Air to develop a nearly 1.8 million-square-foot office, retail, condo and hotel project on the southwest corner of Wilshire and Figueroa in Los Angeles' financial district. The new complex is expected to cost $1 billion.
With so many great things going for Thomas Properties Group you may be asking why is it just on the radar? Really, it's there for just one reason: Technicals.
See TPGI's chart below:
As you can see from the chart, the stock bottomed 2 months ago and has been trading sideways ever since. Such a pattern is often considered bullish because lengthy consolidations such as this typically yield explosive moves up once a reversal occurs. The stagnation of the trading pattern also shows that the stock has yet to participate in the real estate operations run i mentioned earlier. With the stock currently at $1.27/share it needs to show some upward momentum before it screams "buy".
The Quarter 1 2009 earnings report is scheduled for May 5. There is a very strong chance that a lot of investors are waiting on the sidelines to see if anything overly negative pops up during the report before buying. Also, TGPI has less than 25 million outstanding shares and heavy institutional ownership. If the report is pretty clean and the stock gets some positive momentum, it won't require that much for it to hit $3.00/share quickly.
I feel the downside in this stock is minimal, but the upside is tremendous. The earnings report appears to be the catalyst to get this stock moving. If it's favorable, look out! Right now, the technicals show only a potential breakout. That's not quite enough to make TGPI perfect, but it definitely puts it on the radar.
Card, thanks for a new quick selection! .. So if this stock does breakout it should be around may 5th? .. is it possible (or likely) that this stock will continue to trade sideways for another 2 months?
ReplyDeleteD, I think it could breakout around May 5th, but I wanted to post it now just in case there was a pre-earnings run up.
ReplyDeleteits runnnin...got in at 1.36 average...
ReplyDeletethanks again Card
Dr Dre, watching it trade, you can tell it won't take a lot of volume to move. I think if it closes at some point during the next 5 to 10 days over $1.65/share, it will explode!
ReplyDeletealready at 1.59 on 60k+ volume...wondering if thats all you buying? ;)
ReplyDeleteIt's not me Dre. I'm small-time. I don't have enough money to singlehandedly support my picks like that.
ReplyDeletedidnt meaning anything sinister behind my comment, was just wondering if that was you getting in...the DD is excellent, see you at
ReplyDelete$3 :)
Card, CHGY really jumped out at me when I read your post as a stock that could really move upward. I don't have that same feeling after reading this post on TPGI (I've read it 4 times to see if I am missing something).
ReplyDeleteIs your position essentially that a lot of other real estate stocks have done well and this one will join the trend once it reports positive earnings?
And you believe it will report positive earnings because its officers and directors are accumulating shares and they wouldn't do so unless they have a good sense that their earnings will be positive?
Is it really that simple?
Tim, that's part of it, but I'm not putting too much emphasis on the actual earnings. I mainly just felt that based on what was happening with the company and what has happened with the sector in general that TPGI didn't warrant being near its 52 week low. Most other real estate operations stocks have already moved 100% - 300% off of their 52 week lows. Some have done it with decent earning reports and some have done it with bad ones. I've yet to see a great report from an individual stock in group. Some have even moved without news or reporting earnings at all. This was an $11 stock 6 to 7 months ago. It just seemed to me that if the stock ever got any upward momentum to break out of that sideways channel, that that technicals and fundamentals could lead it to at least $3.
ReplyDeleteIt's okay to disagree. I'm certainly not right all the time.
Thanks, Card.
ReplyDeleteI am not necessarily disagreeing with you, just trying to get a better understanding of why you believe TPGI has upward potential. I've seen it right away with your other picks (again, for example, the enhanced mining operations of CHGY), but not right away with this one.
I appreciate your response. And I now see why you picked TPGI as a potentially perfect stock.
1.85 as I speak...32 percent gain for me so far, volume is picking up as well :)
ReplyDeleteTPGI is now perfect! The technicians will move this thing now.
ReplyDeleteI am in.
ReplyDeleteLots of buy recommendations out there for this stock. Hopefully its upward trend continues.
Not sure where it will go, but I always sell when I can turn a 50% profit even at the risk that it might continue to go higher.
What do you mean by "the technicians will move this thing now"?
ReplyDeleteA lot of stock traders look for technical breakouts on a stock. As their software picks up this move, it'll automatically be bought because they know other technical traders will make it move higher.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
ReplyDeleteI am still a new investor and am unfamiliar with many of the terms.
Hey Card, do you think my 2.39 sell order is too low? Im thinking of reconsidering and setting it to 2.74 for 100 percent gain. Do you think this continues to run or sideways for some time?
ReplyDeleteSince it's running now, I think it will continue up at least through Friday and probably Monday morning. Your 100% gain is definitely reachable.
ReplyDelete(OFF TOPIC)
ReplyDeleteCard - Might I suggest that you put up a PayPal link or something similar as a way for us to send donations to you in return for all of your time and effort in researching and sharing the perfect stock with us?
I can't speak for others, but I feel as if I owe you a piece of my winnings when they are based on your work.
Thanks!
Jeff, I agree...I would certainly be willing to donate to Card for the time and effort he puts in to helping others :)
ReplyDeleteKeep it up Card.
ReplyDeleteThanks for one more perfect.
Card, as I type this, TPGI is at 2.05 - has the ship sailed, or do you think this is still a decent entry point?
ReplyDeleteJeffB and Dr Dre, someone else has mentioned that before. I wanted to prove myself first to everyone as more than just a "one stock wonder". Now that I've done that, I think I'll take you up on that offer :)
ReplyDeleteseems to be alot of buys in the 2.04-2.07 range...hoping for next leg up :)
ReplyDeleteBrandon, practically all the stocks in this sector are flying today. Currently, it looks like we're doing a classic mid-day consolidation. I don't think there are many sellers at this price level. Consequently, TPGI is setting up for a typical late afternoon run as west coast money moves in. I don't think it'll double from here, but there's a good chance you can pick up a quick 30% - 50% in the next day or two. Look for another push to come after lunch around 2PM particularly if the market doesn't turn sour.
ReplyDeleteHey Card, I have been watching your posts very carefully since PIR (dont know if that was your first one or not) but I still havnt jumped on your recommendations (and kicking myself every time so far)
ReplyDeleteIm TOTALLY new to the stock market, as in 2 months, I put in $2000 that I could afford to lose, and have been losing ever since. Im always worried that when I buy a stock it has already run its course and usually falls when I buy...
Can you recommend any reading, software or anything for a new investor?! I feel that Im always 2 days behind everyone on everything...
After seeing PIR and TPGI go up like they have after you post about them, Im ready to really jump on board with your next pick..
I, like others here know you have proven your skills so far and can invest with confidence, and would have no problem making donations to keep this site up and keep you picking stocks!
Thx!
boy i am REALLY kicking my self for not getting in on this.. woke up late yesterday and saw it already had a high % gain, so opted to sit this one out... nice pick card, i am definately goin in big on your next one
ReplyDeleteThank you for your kind words ryan2044. Since I graduated from college about 10 years ago, I've always had a fascination with the stock market. To be completely honest, I've never really read any books, but I'm an avid web surfer. So, I've read a lot of different articles over the years. Nothing stands out in particular though. Also, I've never used any special software so I cannot recommend anything in that area either. I've lost my fair share of money, which are hard lessons to learn, but I only used money I could afford to lose. I'm not close to financially being where I want to be and I saw the stock market as an avenue to help me get there.
ReplyDeleteI have a very giving soul and find my biggest joy in seeing others prosper. This isn't the best trait for a capitalist, but I have faith that I'll eventually reap my own financial reward. My best advice to you is to read as many different investment perspectives as you can, try to pick up some tidbits from my posts, and let experience be your teacher. There may be a short cut out there, but I sure haven't found it. Good luck to you!
sold out here at 2.07...should have done it yesterday but felt it had a little more juice...been flat ever since haha...44 percent gain tho, thanks Card...unfortunately I cant afford to donate right now, however if HAYZ hits 60 cents...you will have a big donation coming :)
ReplyDeleteI bought in a little late, so am holding on for a while to see if it moves up a little more. But, yeah, it's been a little flat since some positive after hours movement yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI thought this thing had a lot more upward momentum given all of the strong buy recommendations that were out there when it was priced right around $2.00.
Card,
ReplyDeleteDo you think this stock has the potential to reach $4 after the earnings report?
Siddharth, real estate operations stocks are on fire right now and a large number of them have earnings reports this week. If the consensus thought is that things have bottomed or are improving in the sector, look out. I think $3 could happen quickly, but if management can positively convey the financial impact of the $1 billion Korean Air project during the conference call, I'm confident $4 will happen before the end of May.
ReplyDeleteCard, Everyone, NOT a 'pump'. I've owned a small amount, 50K shares, of XDSL for about six months. I was way early but have averaged to within .002 of break even. Anyway this stock skyrocketed up 56% today, 34M volume, upon a news release of a branding agreement. Card, I don't know about meeting all of the 'perfect' criteria, but these links
ReplyDeletehttp://mphasetech.com/about.html
http://www.google.com/finance?q=OTC:XDSL
should give you an idea if it at least fulfills a few of those criteria. There were some very large buys at the end of trading today, which is often an indication of an upward run on opening.
Please let us know your thoughts.
Thanks,
DH
FOR THOSE STILL HOLDING NVAX, don't know if it's bottomed our but it was up in after hours trading. Talk about Southern Hemisphere entering peak flu season, WHO possibly upgrading pandemic alert from 5 to 6 and the fear of a repetition of the 1918 pandemic in terms of 3 increasingly severe phases, if not lethality, could provide a bounce for this stock.
ReplyDeleteAnd there's this: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30563707/
"Worries about a second wave of flu, early immunity and growing drug resistance all could be eased by the development of a safe, effective, widely available vaccine to protect against the new H1N1 swine virus.
Federal officials have started growing enough “seed stock” of the novel virus to provide material to vaccine manufacturers, according to press briefings. So far, it appears that the process is going as it should.
“I’m very hopeful that we’ll have a vaccine by the fall,” Weinstock said."
Finally, could be worth a listen!
Earnings report announcement:
Novavax Announces Release Date of 2009 First Quarter, Financial Results and Investor Conference Call:
ROCKVILLE, Md., May 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) today announced that it will report its 2009 first quarter financial results in a press release to be issued after 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, May 8, 2009. The Company will hold an investor conference call to discuss its financial results at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, May 8, 2009. The call will be hosted by Novavax President and Chief Executive Officer Dr. Rahul Singhvi and other members of senior management. A question and answer session will follow the financial results overview. The dial-in number for the conference call is 1 (866) 225 4091 (International: 1 (703) 639 1128.)
A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available at www.novavax.com under Investors/Events. Please connect to this website at east 15 minutes prior to the conference call to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be needed to hear the webcast. A replay of the webcast will be available on the website for 90 days after the call and a replay of the conference call will also be available by telephone beginning May 8, 2009 at 1:00 p.m. through May 13, 2009 at 11:59 p.m. To access the replay, dial 1 (888) 266 2081 and enter pass code 1357908.
I don't like how it keeps dropping. I assume just profit taking based on the big jump. I'm really crossing my fingers for good news. Anyone hear anything/know anything?
ReplyDeleteCGprelude, this happens a lot to stocks that have a big run up leading into earnings. People wanted to lock in gains just in case the report after hours today is bad. This doesn't appear to be happening on mega volume so I wouldn't be to concerned yet. Nothing out of the ordinary has been announced, so things should be much clearer after the earnings report.
ReplyDeletehttp://biz.yahoo.com/cc/0/103720.html
ReplyDeleteI read the earnings report and listened to the conference call, but did not glean much from them.
ReplyDeleteThe folks on the phone did try to repeatedly sell the company as "best in class" and used the Korean Air deal as proof.
Their efforts did not cause any positive movement of the stock, however.
Whats going on?
ReplyDeleteouch taking a beating on this. Bought in at 2. Any advice? Hold or bail?
ReplyDeleteLiverpool65, earnings was not great, but wasn't bad either. I thought to go from (.25) last quarter to (.01) this quarter was enough of an improvement to warrant the stock being well over $2.00. The stock moved from the $1.20's when I mentioned it, to the $2.20's pretty quickly. Then, a lot of people took profits. I'd suspect that some of the institutional investors listening to conference call may want to add some to their positions, but it looks like they will wait until all the selling dries up. I still think it'll eventually get to $3.00, but it may take two or three months.
ReplyDeleteThis sucker popped today out of nowhere.
ReplyDeleteWe're still a few weeks away from the divided qualifying day.
It's almost back to where I bought in at.
Tim, from the charts it looks like once the stock retraced back to the $1.20s (ironically this was the exact same price level when I first posted about the stock) it bounced. The positive thing about this move though is that it appears to be a lot more orderly and steady. This usually means that the gains are more likely to be sustain this time.
ReplyDelete