Advanced Medical Institute is a service provider, which arranges for patients with sexual dysfunction and prostate problems in Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom to be provided with medical services, pharmaceuticals and associated clinical support services.
Fundamentals
AVMD.OB got beaten down as did most stocks during past year and half. However, on 11-23-09, the company released their 10-Q detailing the results of their most recent quarter. See below for a few highlights (click here for the full 10-Q):
- 53.5 Mil shares outstanding
- $14.5 Mil revenues
- $0.8 Mil net income
- $0.02 EPS
- $20.1 Mil stockholder equity
- $0.38/share book value
- Company is optimistic about business and profits going forward
The market took note of how undervalued the company became and responded by appreciating the share price up to 600%.
Technicals
See below for a 2 month chart of AVMD.OB:
From the chart, you can see the large spike that occurred from the release of the 10-Q. Now, an amateur would take one look at this chart and say to themselves, "Why in the world would anybody want to buy a stock that has just had a 600% percent gain particularly after the stock price has dropped the following two days?" A more experience technician would look at the same chart and believe the current setup is extremely bullish. They would see that the stock has spiked on very high volume and quickly retraced exactly 50% on relatively low volume. Also, the experienced trader would see that each of the trading days following the spike have printed higher intra-day lows. Trading in this manner signals that the selling is being exhausted and that the stock is entering into a consolidation phase. Many traders will recognize this and will begin to take positions in the stock. I don't have an accurate total for the float of AVMD.OB, but it has to be pretty thin if the share price was able to jump from $0.04/share to $0.23/share on 2.6 million shares of trading volume. Eventually, the buying pressure will become too great and share price will jump again. In stocks with tight floats the consolidation phase can be very quick.
Different Movie, Same Ending?
I've stated before that stocks often follow market psychology. As traders see success in one stock, they look for other stocks that are similar that will hopefully mirror the results. Viking Systems (VKNG.OB) is a recent market darling that moved from sub-penny to over $1.00/share in less than 3 weeks. The recipe for Viking's success:
- Significantly beaten down OTC stock
- Positive quarterly report sparked the rise
- 40-50 million shares outstanding
- Low float
- Optimistic about company's prospects going forward
Of course there are differences between AVMD.OB and VKNG.OB, but as you can see, many of the underlying themes are the same. Also, it had the same super spike to the upper 20 cent range and a 50% retrace before moving higher. InstaCare Corp (ISCR.OB) is another stock following a similar path that in my opinion is a stage ahead of AVMD.OB. Again, it has the same recipe as others. It too had the same 50% retrace, has already consolidated in the upper teens, and is in the process of breaking out to even higher levels (click here for chart of ISCR.OB). Advanced Medical Institute looks poise to do the exact same thing.
Conclusion
The stock market is generally unpredictable and penny stocks tend to be the most unstable variety of them all. However, certain setups can yield predictable results. In my opinion AVMD.OB has set itself up perfectly to climb higher than its current share price of $0.18 based upon some proven technical indicators. I'm not going to take a leap and say that the stock will reach the dollar level of VKNG.OB, but I think odds of the share price reaching at least $0.30 - $0.40 before Christmas are pretty favorable. Although penny stocks don't necessarily follow the general market, the annual "Santa Rally" that frequently occurs during the month of December won't hurt the company's immediate prospects either. Advanced Medical Institute (AVMD.OB) is the next perfect stock.
Wow, I didn't think AVMD would pop so quickly. The only negative with the stock is that it is very difficult to fill limit orders. That makes it tough to get in and get out.
ReplyDeleteISCR is officially a beast! The consistent volume has been the most impressive thing to me. The float has got to be close to nonexistent now. The way it is looking, a dollar is a strong possibility.
Card,
ReplyDeleteI hope ISCR is not the P&D, what is your expection for this week???
Dave, all penny stocks are P&Ds, but ISCR has the goods to move higher because there is plenty of ammunition for the pump. I'm expecting 35 cents by weeks end.
ReplyDeleteThanks Card.
ReplyDeleteDid you guys see how EVFN was a double bagger today? That's what we need! 200% in a day is a good day indeed!
ReplyDeleteI saw that P. EVFN is a classic "split" trade. Traders push the stock price up knowing that disgruntled or quick flipping holders won't be able to sell their old shares. It takes time for splits and name changes to get updated in most people's trading accounts.
ReplyDeleteNice news for TTNP today. That is one steady stock.
Card, OWVI should keep climbing on news later this week about FDIC approval for their VISA card and I'm hearing a lot of rumblings about RBTI. What have you heard about those?
ReplyDeleteP, RBTI has definitely been hot of late and appears to have technically broken out. However, I'm not sold on them. They seem to be involved in a lot of different stuff, but they don't ever seem to be making any definitive progress in any of them. I do have my eyes on them though.
ReplyDeleteAnother undervalued play I've been following is SPMI. The negative is that the stock is pretty illiquid. I think the float is gone and nobody will sell the stock at these levels. As a result, it's been moving steady on very little volume. If you read the 10-Q and consider the stock has a market cap of only about $1 mil, you'll quickly see that it is entirely too cheap. I think the share price will quadruple by Christmas. It would be "perfect" if it had liquidity.
ReplyDeleteIf anybody's into playing "sexy charts", check out SRGL. It's also a gold play.
ReplyDeleteCard - Would you still consider AVMD perfect for entry considering today's closing price?
ReplyDeletestock newbie, I think AVMD is due for a bounce, but it is hard to say if it will occur tomorrow (although it is likely). The tanking like what happened today often occurs when a stock moves up too fast as it did on Monday (I had no idea it would reach my target within the first hour of trading). AVMD is no longer perfect because the chart is now broken, but if your prospects are longer term, I think you can eventually make some nice profit with a 10 cent entry.
ReplyDeleteDave, ISCR broke down a bit today. 20 cents was a key resistance area that failed to hold. I think it eventually comes back, but it'll probably need some additional time to regroup.
RODM got a HUGE deal!
ReplyDeleteTime to rock again!
That $100 million RINO deal is huge for RODM. According to SEC filings, they'll make $4.5 million plus a "warrant solicitation fee" to be disclosed later. If the investment banks weren't "taking it on the chin", RODM would be a screaming buy. However, the way things are going, it just looks like it'll only be good for a quick trade. Time will tell. I think once you start seeing Goldman Sachs recover, you can start to buy RODM again.
ReplyDeleteAll the stem cell stocks have exploded higher today (particularly after lunch), but I can't seem to figure out which one I should buy to quickly profit from it.
ReplyDeleteOCLS is set up for a nice move today and tomorrow. I think a quick 20% to 30% could be made between now and Friday. If volume comes in, it may even hit $3.00.
ReplyDeleteGlad I got into RODM again when I did. Nice profits!
ReplyDeleteCard, are you looking at OCLS as a momentum play alone, or do you like the fundamentals as well? Their product like does look impressive.
Do you see a danger in holding over the weekend? I'm not afraid to hold for weeks if needed. I haven't read about their financials yet, but again the products do look impressive.
Frank, I liked OCLS as a technical/ momentum play. However, I don't think you can go wrong holding it for a quick trade or long term hold. I felt that Wednesday represented a bottom particularly with the CFO buying shares in the $1.60's just a couple of weeks ago. The setup just looked primed for a bounce after the announcement. If it runs big today, they'll probably be a late afternoon selloff as people lock in profits before the weekend.
ReplyDeleteThanks Card. I guess the momo is over for now.
ReplyDeleteGuys, check SNV, They got upgraded today, big volume. Plus huge insider buys in November.
ReplyDeleteSNV certainly has a nice rounding bottom forming.
ReplyDeleteCard, any thoughts on XCEL? They have an interesting payment technology. Today, they may be starting to bounce back - up 40% so far, but still only at 0.14. They traded over 0.70 at the end of October!
ReplyDeleteXCEL made a nice move today but I'm not sold on this necessarily starting a trend back up. It looks like a move like this happened 2 other times in the month of November and each has lead to another leg down. I'd also like to see more volume to confirm the conviction of the move, but it is worth watching.
ReplyDeleteThanks, I just checked their 10-Q and it doesn't look good, IMO.
ReplyDeleteAre you still in ISCR? There may be a run into close like last week in anticipation of some Monday news.
Something may be also brewing with MDGC.
Bighoper, I sold ISCR earlier in the week at 18 cents. When it broke that 20 cent support, I thought it was time to get out. Considering my starting position, I profited pretty well, but I hate the fact that I left 10 cents a share on the table. I also thought the PRs starting getting a little "fluffy". I think the market wants them to say that they've filed for the patents. At that point, I'd probably get back in.
ReplyDeleteI hadn't followed MDGC. I'll check it out.
Congrats on a nice gain and I agree that the recent PR's were fluffy.
ReplyDeleteIf you're looking for a stock with great technicals and a great story behind the company, then check QASP. I am still undecided: it's either a scam or an incredible investment opportunity. They have about 6 acquisitions pending worth $350 million by mid-December.
GCKO is going crazy!
ReplyDeletebighoper1,
ReplyDeleteSNV does look nice! Do you think the price will hit near $3 soon? Looking the chart, it sure seems possible!
Thanks mentioning it!
Card, thanks for heads-up on GCKO. Did you buy? I didn't, because I'm afraid of P&D, but I'll definitely check it over the weekend.
ReplyDeleteFrank, like Warren Buffet would say: I have absolutely no idea about the short-term movement of SNV, but in the long run it looks like a winner.
bighoper1,
ReplyDeleteTHANK YOU!!! I just sold my 12,000 shares of SNV right now in after-hours. Thanks to you I made a grand in just a couple of hours today!
Frank,
ReplyDeletecongratulations. Enjoy!
Bighoper, I bought some GCKO at $0.035. I saw the insane volume and figured I'd take a flier on it. I'm hoping there was a big news leak. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteLJPC is looking like the market's chosen one today. With mergers, it always difficult to figure out the stock's price ceiling. That's great for speculation. Day traders may try to pile into it to superficially jack up the price as the day progresses. It'll definitely be an interesting one to watch today.
ReplyDeleteCard,
ReplyDeleteI wonder if BigHoper's SNV is perfect. I got back in during the premarket today after haring some good stuff about it on Bloomberg TV. (Talk of it possibly being a 5-bagger.) Got out again after one hour with more than twice what I made Friday!
This stock appears to be leaving its 2009 bottom in the dust.
Thanks again to BigHoper!
Frank,
ReplyDeleteI'm kicking myself like crazy, cause I bought only at 2.05 and missed SNV's bottom in the 1.50-1.60 range when insiders were loading up. I have set a stop-loss at 2.39 and see what's going to happen.
Bighoper
Card,
ReplyDeletegreat call on LJPC. What are your expectations? Thanks.
Guys, don't forget about QASP. As mid-December is nearing, this pink is going crazy on huge volume. I sold a sizeable portion of my position today, but still holding some shares, if the company makes it big.
ReplyDeleteGood luck
LJPC fizzled. I wouldn't hold it beyond to today. I don't see enough in it for a multi-day run.
ReplyDeleteSNV continues to look good. It might take a breather the next couple of days, but it's on the "perfect" radar :)
RMIX looking good.
ReplyDeleteBigHoper,
ReplyDeleteHow do you find these opportunities? RMIX could be awesome, especially with today's speech from the president that is likely to mention infrastructure. However, I can't convince myself to buy it like SNV. RMIX looks much more risky to me.
I guess your stop loss kicked you out of SNV. Are you going to hop back in?
On the quality side, BEXP is likely to reach almost $20 in the next 4 months. Currently it is 11ish. Has the CASH to be drilling a new well about every two weeks for most of 2010!
I guess I was wrong about LJPC not being a multi-day runner. It's moving pretty strong today. I guess the shorts must be bailing.
ReplyDeleteHuge volume on RMIX, it may take off at any time.
ReplyDeleteCard, I also bought your pick GCKO. As of today, tt is being pumped on this site: http://finance.bnet.com/bnet/?GUID=11048709&Page=MediaViewer
LJPC is a monster!
EFJI also looks very good.
ReplyDeleteFrank,
I got stopped out of SNV at 2.38, but of course I may re-enter it.
I usually check thelion.com site, there is a list of the currently hottest stocks on the big boards with a 15 minute delay.
Good luck
Thanks BigHoper.
ReplyDeleteRMIX took off! Wish I had got in!
DCGN looks like easy money on MOMO. I got some for just under 9 cents.
ReplyDeleteRMIX is looking great as well. Good call Bighoper!
Card, I'm afraid of jumping into DCGN, as it is up on no news, but good luck to you.
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on ISCR now? It lingers in the 0.12-0.13 range, but any news (though fluffy) may move it up 50% easily.
MNI flying on better outlook, can LEE be next? That's the question :)
ReplyDeleteI made a little on DCGN. However, I wouldn't dare hold it overnight.
ReplyDeleteIMO the only way I'm buying back into ISCR is with solid patent news, but I agree that a pop could occur on technicals.
LEE's a good bit ahead of MNI. If MNI blows past it, LEE would definitely be a good buy.
VNDA's currently at $11 and just got a buy rating from Jefferies with a $22 target. It could be an opportunity to make a quick 20% in the next couple of days.
ReplyDeleteI certainly jumped out of DCGN and LJPC way too soon. Oh well!
ReplyDeleteI have the same feeling about GTN. I almost bought it at 1.08, now it's pushing through 1.52.
ReplyDeleteIMO, EEGI will either be flat the rest of the day or make a huge end of day run. A buy here seems pretty low risk.
ReplyDeleteCard, someone just bought a big chunk of ABR. ABR has a 7.5% stake in Prime Outlets which is to be sold for over 2 billion (yesterday's Bloomberg news). Do the math on how much ABR will get :)
ReplyDeleteEEGI looks very tempting, good luck.
TDGI big news, up 700%
ReplyDeleteCard, TDGI may be a gold mine. It seems that the float is actually just 7 or 8 million shares. Last time it ran to almost 5 cents just on speculation, now we have real news on merger with good company and the news release promises more PR's to come. I bought a very nice positon today.
ReplyDeleteWhat's your take on this one?
Bighoper, I had to step away this afternoon. It looks like most of the REITS did pretty well today. I'd like to see more momo in the group, before I join the party.
ReplyDeleteThere was a lot of penny merger news today. It'll be interesting to see which one will be the biggest winner out of TDGI, EEGI, and GLGT. I can't decide which one has the most potential.
TDGI's pumping campaign getting started, another PR out. Sooner or later this will go up, IMO.
ReplyDeleteSooner or later?? It's already up almost 100% today bighoper!
ReplyDeleteP,
ReplyDeleteI had an order at 0.0060, as I was hoping for a dip at the beginning, but to no avail, so I added at a higher price. If it dips below 0.01, I am adding again. This can be a 5-10 bagger
Good luck
SNV appears to be filling the gap right now that was created the other day on the chart.
ReplyDeleteMight head north from here.
Bighoper how soon do you think it will take for TDGI to be a 5 to 10 bagger? You don't think it will fall much below .01 and only progressively increase from here?
ReplyDeleteHDLM is incredible!
ReplyDeleteHowever, as they have about about 0.31 per share for shareholders, the run will be probably over soon, unless the shorts push it to stratosphere...
I actually saw the 10-Q on HDLM early this morning, but the gap up was just too much to gamble on. It started off at 2 cents at a little after 8AM, but it then quickly jumped to about 10 cents. At that point I said thanks, but no thanks.
ReplyDeleteI've been asked a few times about how I find out about recently released 10-Q. I may do a post regarding that on my "Trading Tips" blog soon.
Card and Bighoper, you think TDGI is safe to get in now at .01? The chart doesn't look very good so why do you feel it could be a 5 to 10 bagger and how soon?
ReplyDeleteWhat merger are you guys talking about with TDGI??
ReplyDeleteP,
ReplyDeleteTDGI is a risky investment, of course, but if you read the latest news and check the DD on I-Hub, I think it's definitely worth a small position. IMO, the stock is now being accumulated and as soon as this phase is over, we're moving up. The reason why it could be a 5-10 bagger is lots of future news combined with a low float. This can be documented by the stock's impressive performance in July, when it went from 0.0007 to 0.045 in a short time.
Here's the link to I-hub: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=5223
P, TDGI is a typical penny risk/reward. I think it's already seen it high for today, but who knows what tomorrow will bring. If you don't feel good about it, hold off and wait for another play.
ReplyDeleteTDGI probably will be much higher in the future but it could go even lower tomorrow or Monday so it's probably good to hold off for now.
ReplyDeleteBighoper, a LEE spike. We didn't see that coming did we? ;)
ReplyDeleteCard, I actually made a nice 9 percent profit on it (bought at 3.30, sold at 3.58), but now I see I should have held longer !
ReplyDeleteGCKO is moving nicely. I have heard GCKO could be above a dollar next year since they're partnering with a NASDAQ company to build their Carebots and there could be a buyout.
ReplyDeleteCard and others, what do you think of GCKO?
WHAT has caused HDLM to explode over 1000% like this?? There is no news and it seems on IHUB they are saying a $1 is possible?? Based on what????
ReplyDeleteP, I like GCKO. I recently bought back in because the chart looks primed to pop again. Plus, I liked the concept.
ReplyDeleteHDLM is all about the 10-Q. They get like $11 million dollars back from the IRS. With only 20 million shares outstanding, it could go higher, but I like GCKO much more.
GCKO looks very good. I sold at 0.037 yesterday, but looking to re-enter. The volume is too big to ignore, already surpassed $300K.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Goldman put a price target of 16 cents on GCKO and they've released the name of the manufacturer. I've got a decent amount averaged at about $0.044, but I'm tempted to back up the truck right now.
ReplyDeleteUnreal GCKO price drop. It doesn't even look like that much volume. Must have been a classic "sell the news". I think I'm going to hold tight though.
ReplyDeleteCard, do you know anything about BBYB? Something is definitely up plus good technicals and fundamentals.
ReplyDeleteI saw the late day movement on BBYB. I don't know anything about it. At first glance it just looks like a technical pop.
ReplyDeleteHere's a short report on BBYB:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ironmanstock.com/
I bought a few shares at the close, it was ten times higher in May, now it seems they're back on track again.
Let's hope for the best with GCKO, I rebought on the dip at 0.360.
Good luck to you.
BTW, Card, I am looking forward to your next post on "how I find out about recently released 10-Q". Thanks to you I have begun using the Pinksheets "Advancers" feature, which is very useful.
ReplyDeleteI also like thelion.com for info on big board advancers and for gathering message board posts from different sources (Yahoo, I-hub, Twitter, etc.).
GCKO's looking good in the premarket. Hopefully, today will be better than yesterday.
ReplyDeleteCard,
ReplyDeleteI could not resist and added at 0.031 (though the current low is 0.028). The volume and the story are too big to ignore. It also seems that the company now issues press releases every week, which should keep the stock hot. And I also like analysts' target prices :)
I'm looking at the volume of SNSS again today and it's already over 12 million. Could it possibly hit $3 today.
ReplyDeleteSo you think we will surely break two bucks?
ReplyDeleteIt may take a couple of attempts, but I don't think it'll take that long to clear out all the sellers at $2. $3 or close to it looks to be in the cards. Too much volume IMO
ReplyDeleteGuys, so the float on TDGI is only 7 to 8 million? What are the outstanding shares on TDGI??
ReplyDeleteI'm also holding strong on GCKO. I just wish I had money to buy more shares. Card, that 16 cents price estimate is excellent and GCKO is supposed to go to MID-DOLLAR level according to an artice on CBS Money Watch!!
Looks like CYCC is following right behind SNSS. You, might want to take a look at that one too. Once profit taking starts in SNSS, I think some of that money will poor into CYCC since it's a similar company.
ReplyDeleteI just checked on IHUB and someone got an e-mail from the TA and the float on TDGI is MUCH higher than 7 or 8 million. Below is the e-mail so what do you guys think?
ReplyDeletePosted by: detearing Date: Thursday, December 10, 2009 3:38:43 PM
In reply to: detearing who wrote msg# 9134 Post # of 9204 [Send a link via email] [Share on Facebook] [Tweet this post]
I called just now:
301,870,690 OS
269,600,578 Float
CYCC or maybe even NEXM, also huge volume.
ReplyDeleteTDGI is also moving up nicely.
As for GCKO, some people talk about dilution. Thoughts?
Bighoper, what about the 270 million float on TDGI in that e-mail from the TA? That's not good.
ReplyDeleteI doubt dilution on GCKO. Too many big players coming in with them parterning with a NASDAQ company to build their Carebots.
TDGI seems ok to me as long as it stays liquid with volume. If the volume dries up, I get worried because it becomes harder to get your money out if it starts to get walked down by the MMs.
ReplyDeleteGCKO will definitely dilute eventually, but I don't think the market will mind as long as demand is strong for the product.
P,
ReplyDeletecheck latest messages on I-hub. The actual float for TDGI is probably smaller.
Card, even if there is dilution with GCKO don't you think GCKO will keep going higher with some pullbacks inbetween?
ReplyDeleteP, I agree as long as demand is strong for the product.
ReplyDeleteCYCC looks to be the play now the rest of the day from a technical standpoint. We'll see.
BNVI and CYTR next?
ReplyDeleteBGEM going up, very low float.
ReplyDeleteBGEM looks interesting. I've never seen a stock with such a high % blue bars on its volume chart before. It looks like it could spike at any moment.
ReplyDeleteCard, blue bars on volume chart?? I see green for more buying than selling volume and red for more selling than buying volume. Please explain.
ReplyDeleteThe level 2 on BGEM doesn't look that impressive.
P, the color representations vary depending on the type of volume chart. Red is generally the only universal color. In this instance, your "green" and my "blue" represent the same thing.
ReplyDeleteCard, what service do you use to look at your charts? You use live charts right?
ReplyDeleteLGDI finally over one dollar, next year should be big for the company. However, I think it may once again fall to the 0.80-0.90 range.
ReplyDeleteP, I'll either use the chart on Ihub or level2stockquotes.com. Both have free live charts.
ReplyDelete